#64097: "Dice statistics"
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I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
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Mozilla v5
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• Por favor copie/cole o texto em inglês em vez de sua língua. Se tiver uma captura de ecrã/tela deste problema (boa prática), pode usar Imgur.com para carregá-la e copiar/colar o endereço aqui.
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
• Este texto está disponível no sistema de traduções? Se sim, foi traduzido há mais de 24 horas?
• Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
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• Por favor, explique sua sugestão precisamente e de forma concisa, de forma que fique o mais fácil possível, entender o que você quer dizer.
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea • Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
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• O que estava presente na tela quando você estava bloqueado (tela em branco? Parte da imagem do jogo? Mensagem de erro?)
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea • Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
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• Que parte das regras não foi respeitada pela adaptação do BGA?
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
• A violação de regras está visível na revisão do jogo? Se sim, em que número de jogada?
• Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
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• Qual era a ação de jogo que queria fazer?
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
• O que você tentou fazer para provocar esta ação de jogo?
-
• O que aconteceu quando tentou fazer isto(mensagem de erro, mensagem na barra de estado do jogo)?
• Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
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• Em que passo do jogo ocorre o problema(qual era a instrução corrente do jogo)?
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
• O que aconteceu quando tentou fazer essa ação de jogo (mensagem de erro, mensagem na barra de estado do jogo)?
• Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
-
• Por favor descreva o problema de visualização. Se tiver uma captura de ecrã/tela deste problema (boa prática), pode usar Imgur.com para carregá-la e copiar/colar o endereço aqui.
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea • Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
-
• Por favor copie/cole o texto em inglês em vez de sua língua. Se tiver uma captura de ecrã/tela deste problema (boa prática), pode usar Imgur.com para carregá-la e copiar/colar o endereço aqui.
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea -
• Este texto está disponível no sistema de traduções? Se sim, foi traduzido há mais de 24 horas?
• Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
-
• Por favor, explique sua sugestão precisamente e de forma concisa, de forma que fique o mais fácil possível, entender o que você quer dizer.
I remember a very old online version that showed dice statistics.
It doesn't add any real quality to the game, I agree for that.
It just relaxes me a bit if I see someone winning because his 11 is rolled more often than my 6 (not because I am a bad player)
And we kept screenshots of crazy statistics, winning a game with 8 times a 2 roll and only 2 times an 8 roll for example :-)
Just an idea • Qual navegador você está usando?
Mozilla v5
Histórico do relatório
This is already implemented and since no die roll is related to previous, I don't see the point of having such stat display during the game itself.
As the game continued you would see how many times a dice was rolled.
I agree this is nice to have during the game to see how many times certain dice were rolled.
I've only played two games, but in both games felt the 10 and 8 were unfairly under rolled.
Thank you for adding it to the end of game display!
Last one I played :
3 - 9 times
4 - 15
5 - 13
6 - 19
7 - 11
8 - 11
9 - 6
10 - 4
11 - 6
12 - 6
Lancer de dés : taux de 2 (~3%) 0
Lancer de dés : taux de 3 (~6%) 12
Lancer de dés : taux de 4 (~8%) 13
Lancer de dés : taux de 5 (~11%) 12
Lancer de dés : taux de 6 (~14%) 7
Lancer de dés : taux de 7 (~17%) 19
Lancer de dés : taux de 8 (~14%) 15
Lancer de dés : taux de 9 (~11%) 9
Lancer de dés : taux de 10 (~8%) 5
Lancer de dés : taux de 11 (~6%) 8
Lancer de dés : taux de 12 (~3%) 0
In most games i played, the randomniser has a favorite number.
Would be nice if bga checked on there randomniser
Dice roll: rate of 2 (~3%)
0
Dice roll: rate of 3 (~6%)
2
Dice roll: rate of 4 (~8%)
2
Dice roll: rate of 5 (~11%)
9
Dice roll: rate of 6 (~14%)
2
Dice roll: rate of 7 (~17%)
19
Dice roll: rate of 8 (~14%)
16
Dice roll: rate of 9 (~11%)
9
Dice roll: rate of 10 (~8%)
23
Dice roll: rate of 11 (~6%)
12
Dice roll: rate of 12 (~3%)
5
How is this even possible?
Distribution skewed heavily. Also almost no 6s but a million 10s.
Something is seriously off with probabilities of Catan, since this happens a lot.
Almost every game probabilities are off.
That being said, the dice totals are incorrect at the end of a game. For example:
boardgamearena.com/8/catan?table=322970460
There were 58 player turns, but the dice rolls add up to 101. If you're already showing %age for each roll, why are the actual counts scaled up to ~100? I've seen this for multiple games: the total number of turns will be 50-60 but the number of rolls is ~100.
Although I try to counter this reality by placing my initial settlements close to as many different numbers as possible, almost invariably the dice decide to fixate on the numbers to which I am not adjacent (i.e. 5s and 9s - or worse - when I am near both 6s and 8s.)
Although I really like the game concept, this flaw has led me to quit one or two games in extreme frustration and consider giving up playing the game entirely.
The community has picked up on this-- good players take "8" locations in preference over "6" locations.
Winning player rolled 7 seven times out of eighteen rolls while myself and third player each rolled only two 7's apiece. I'm salty because I think I objectively had the best board setup and probability to win.
ID
Dice roll: rate of 2 (~3%)
4
Dice roll: rate of 3 (~6%)
9
Dice roll: rate of 4 (~8%)
11
Dice roll: rate of 5 (~11%)
11
Dice roll: rate of 6 (~14%)
2
Dice roll: rate of 7 (~17%)
13
Dice roll: rate of 8 (~14%)
13
Dice roll: rate of 9 (~11%)
9
Dice roll: rate of 10 (~8%)
21
Dice roll: rate of 11 (~6%)
6
Dice roll: rate of 12 (~3%)
2
Here's another extreme example where I got demolished because I produced only a total of 25 resources in the whole game (ofc without intentionally choosing bad locations).
Dice roll: rate of 2 (~3%)
0
Dice roll: rate of 3 (~6%)
6
Dice roll: rate of 4 (~8%)
6
Dice roll: rate of 5 (~11%)
18
Dice roll: rate of 6 (~14%)
5
Dice roll: rate of 7 (~17%)
15
Dice roll: rate of 8 (~14%)
21
Dice roll: rate of 9 (~11%)
6
Dice roll: rate of 10 (~8%)
13
Dice roll: rate of 11 (~6%)
3
Dice roll: rate of 12 (~3%)
6
Guys you have to fix this..... ant in every game there are strange things.
Chance is part of the game ... bur normally there's also strategy.... and on BGA it really onlt luck.
Lancer de dés : taux de 2 (~3%)
9
Lancer de dés : taux de 3 (~6%)
4
Lancer de dés : taux de 4 (~8%)
1
Lancer de dés : taux de 5 (~11%)
21
Lancer de dés : taux de 6 (~14%)
9
Lancer de dés : taux de 7 (~17%)
14
Lancer de dés : taux de 8 (~14%)
13
Lancer de dés : taux de 9 (~11%)
12
Lancer de dés : taux de 10 (~8%)
5
Lancer de dés : taux de 11 (~6%)
8
Lancer de dés : taux de 12 (~3%)
4
.... 9 times 2, 8 times 11 and 9 times 6
... 21 times 5
We had a lot of fun with the dices lol ... but it's impossible to develop a strategy with that
Last 12 turns - 8 dropped 8 times (75%). Player with house on "8" won the game. Because 75% is too much.
8-3-8-8-8-7-8-8-8-6-7-8 - last 12 turns
6
Lancer de dés : taux de 3 (~6%)
3
Lancer de dés : taux de 4 (~8%)
3
Lancer de dés : taux de 5 (~11%)
11
Lancer de dés : taux de 6 (~14%)
2
Lancer de dés : taux de 7 (~17%)
20
Lancer de dés : taux de 8 (~14%)
17
Lancer de dés : taux de 9 (~11%)
13
Lancer de dés : taux de 10 (~8%)
16
Lancer de dés : taux de 11 (~6%)
5
Lancer de dés : taux de 12 (~3%)
5
Same thing ...
Table 368335739
Moreover, it say that there was 2 roll 6 but i saw only one. I saw the game another time and there was only one 6. So only 1 six on 76 rolls...
Lancer de dés : taux de 2 (~3%)
5
Lancer de dés : taux de 3 (~6%)
0
Lancer de dés : taux de 4 (~8%)
10
Lancer de dés : taux de 5 (~11%)
10
Lancer de dés : taux de 6 (~14%)
14
Lancer de dés : taux de 7 (~17%)
10
Lancer de dés : taux de 8 (~14%)
10
Lancer de dés : taux de 9 (~11%)
12
Lancer de dés : taux de 10 (~8%)
14
Lancer de dés : taux de 11 (~6%)
12
Lancer de dés : taux de 12 (~3%)
5
Same thing... A lot of 10 and 11
Table #373853551
Move #50
Progression 0%
Sample: Catan game 384257740
Je ne sais pas si le sujet à déjà été abordé? Je ne vais pas parler des probabilité générale mais dans des cas spéciaux ou les probabilité semble être modifiées : 1) lorsque le voleur est sur un numéro, celui-ci sort beaucoup plus souvent juste après. 2) Lorsque j'ai plus de 7 cartes à mon tour, la probabilité que le 7 sorte passe de 16.67% à 50%. 3) lorsqu'une colonie est construite, trés souvent le numéro qui sort juste après est situé sur une case adjacente à la nouvelle colonie.
Je ne suis pas le seul à l'avoir remarqué?!
Good evening,
I don't know if this topic has been covered before? I'm not going to talk about the general probability but in special cases where the probability seems to be modified: 1) when the thief is on a number, it comes out much more often just after. 2) When I have more than 7 cards in my turn, the probability that the 7 comes out goes from 16.67% to 50%. 3) when a colony is built, very often the number that comes out right after is located on a square adjacent to the new colony.
I'm not the only one who noticed this?!
#1 for sure (if I want my 10 to be rolled, I put the robber on the other 10 - it doesn't guarantee it, but seems to increase the probability)
#2 I have found this to be true as well, but usually it does not happen to the player with the lowest elo at the table (or perhaps, not to the current loser).
#3 I haven't noticed this, but I will keep an eye out for it
My observations
#4 The dice rolls, especially in the first half of the game, in the first half of the game often benefit one player, based on their initial settlements. This person who benefits also tends to roll more 7's (but not when their hand is over limit)
According to the statistics that the game proposes, the numbers that should appear the most are 8 and 6, but there are games where 6 rarely appears and 8 very rarely. Instead 5 or 3 seem to be the new 6 and 8.
This conspires against the nature of the game.
When fix it?
Random number generation apparently not working properly
Is it normal for the first four chance cards to be scoring cards?
When will this bug be fixed?
Additionally, it will make the game experience poorer, encouraging people with a poor sense of statistics to complain about the random number generator to be buggy when it is not.
A game of Catan typically involves between 60 and 90 die rolls. Those are not Large Numbers. That is too little to make it very likely that the distribution of results will always look like a normal distribution. There is nothing weird about a game of Catan where 3 is rolled more often than 8 --- also on a physical table, with real dice. (If you aggregated all the roll dice from all the games, then you would clearly see 8 being rolled more often, but in any particular game anything can happen.)
And yet, this thread is full of posts complaining that for this or that specific game, the distribution does not look normal and/or the random number generator is buggy. 🤦 A live count of results would only encourage this behaviour ("We have rolled 12 times and 8 has not come up yet!").
If I could vote against this suggestion, I would.
The ten is released 0 times!
And the eleven is released out 14 times!
Look at the screenshot:
i.imgur.com/HFdoztp.png
Another game 8 - 0 times
Ridiculous
I lost this came on catan bc among 6 and 9 were less than 5. It hasn't any sense at all. 9 has the same rate as 5 and 6 has more rate. ¿How is it even possible to be more than double times 5 than both of them?
To be honest i was not happy when i lost some games and i had the best numbers to win. But that is what probability is, it won't always be accurate, just most of times.
In order to know if the number generator is wrong, we need to take into account every game that is played. That would be millions of dice rolls and then check the percentage of every number.
But only with let's say around 100 times per game, i think it is not enough to assure that there is any issue.
yes, and when they have 8 or 9 points, the game starts and I also have dice...good score 10
Catan is Random, dice are random; Randomness is the very thing preventing rolls to be predictable.
That's it, there's no more to it, no premium advantage bullshit or dark plots against you.
There's ton of games here without randomness.
One player already have 8 points while the others only still have 2 / 3 points.... ridiculous game
That’s not a normal probability
They're already there at the end of games.
"Dice 3 / 11 much more often than 6/9/10 …..
That’s not a normal probability"
While it's not normal in regards to pure probability, it still fits in with the randomness of dice. Your single game is not at all a large enough sample set to say that the randomizer is wrong.
boardgamearena.com/5/catan?table=525005647
Cities and Knights has a card called Inventor that allows you to switch 2 numbers on the board (not 2, 6, 8, 12). In real life, I always get myself a 5 or a 9 and give away a 3 or 11. With these weird dice, I see players doing the opposite.
boardgamearena.com/11/catan?table=526131350
You can google Lava Lamp Encryption for an better explanation.
Move #184
Progression 100%
Please review alogirthm for your game. In this particular case, the player easily dominated by having 8's and 9's. After playing many games and not claiming to be the best, I have never seen the dice be in such favor of one player. I almost feel as if some players may have figured out how to adjust rolls.
Dice roll: percentage of 3 (~6%)
6
Dice roll: percentage of 4 (~8%)
6
Dice roll: percentage of 5 (~11%)
8
Dice roll: percentage of 6 (~14%)
10
Dice roll: percentage of 7 (~17%)
17
Dice roll: percentage of 8 (~14%)
25
Dice roll: percentage of 9 (~11%)
17
Dice roll: percentage of 10 (~8%)
8
Dice roll: percentage of 11 (~6%)
0
Dice roll: percentage of 12 (~3%)
2
Dice roll: percentage of 2 (~3%)
2
Dice roll: percentage of 3 (~6%)
6
Dice roll: percentage of 4 (~8%)
16
Dice roll: percentage of 5 (~11%)
10
Dice roll: percentage of 6 (~14%)
17
Dice roll: percentage of 7 (~17%)
19
Dice roll: percentage of 8 (~14%)
10
Dice roll: percentage of 9 (~11%)
0
Dice roll: percentage of 10 (~8%)
13
Dice roll: percentage of 11 (~6%)
8
Dice roll: percentage of 12 (~3%)
0
Dice appear for 2times? Dice 4 appear 13times?...... when will GBA fix the dice statistics issue? We are in AI generation, fair statistic is just a easy things to maintain. Please fix the problem
擲骰:2 的比率 (~3%)
2
擲骰:3 的比率 (~6%)
11
擲骰:4 的比率 (~8%)
13
擲骰:5 的比率 (~11%)
2
擲骰:6 的比率 (~14%)
15
擲骰:7 的比率 (~17%)
17
擲骰:8 的比率 (~14%)
9
擲骰:9 的比率 (~11%)
13
擲骰:10 的比率 (~8%)
15
擲骰:11 的比率 (~6%)
0
擲骰:12 的比率 (~3%)
2
Once again..... un real dice statistics.... Just want to play a fair game....
Dice appear for 2times? Dice 4 appear 13times?...... when will GBA fix the dice statistics issue? We are in AI generation, fair statistic is just a easy things to maintain. Please fix the problem
擲骰:2 的比率 (~3%)
2
擲骰:3 的比率 (~6%)
11
擲骰:4 的比率 (~8%)
13
擲骰:5 的比率 (~11%)
2
擲骰:6 的比率 (~14%)
15
擲骰:7 的比率 (~17%)
17
擲骰:8 的比率 (~14%)
9
擲骰:9 的比率 (~11%)
13
擲骰:10 的比率 (~8%)
15
擲骰:11 的比率 (~6%)
0
擲骰:12 的比率 (~3%)
2
even a 12 appeared more often than a 9?
The dice seems center for the Chinese guy.You should check if he hack or not.But this game is totally not fair for me and the one in the third place.I hope you can recover my elo because you know how hard it is to gain it at my point!
Dices roll to "8" 6 times in a row
3
擲骰:3 的比率 (~6%)
5
擲骰:4 的比率 (~8%)
5
擲骰:5 的比率 (~11%)
11
擲骰:6 的比率 (~14%)
8
擲骰:7 的比率 (~17%)
16
擲骰:8 的比率 (~14%)
18
擲骰:9 的比率 (~11%)
11
擲骰:10 的比率 (~8%)
10
擲骰:11 的比率 (~6%)
11
擲骰:12 的比率 (~3%)
2
After all, many people have already come to you with this problem. I'm sure everyone you ask in this game will support me.
Change the algorithms for the drop-out numbers. If you haven't found a specialist who can do it for so many years, hire him in the labor market.
I like everything in this game, except for the incorrectly written program for the drop of numbers on the cube.
I hope you won't ignore my message.
Thank you for understanding.
PS create a questionnaire on this problem and you will understand how serious it is.
FIX IT!
Hey guys, please see that result.
Half rolls in all rolls are 6.
Dices logic is poor, it makes the games more boring.
If developer didn't fix it, game players would be decreasing.
Please look into dice randomization and cluster
There is 2 main topics on the forum on this subject. Both agrees that dice are not Randoms.
I have put more info on the 2nd topics in the forum - 170+ up votes
If you add both topics together you got a major subjecta
In some games there are lucky numbers, like 4 or 10, for example. These are numbers that fall into the dice all the time, even more than 6 and 8. And some numbers (which should fall more frequently, like 5) fall very rarely. I know that the numbers with the lowest probabilities must fall at some point in the game, but I think it's ridiculous that their frequency in a match is greater than the best numbers
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 2 (~3%)
4
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 3 (~6%)
7
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 4 (~8%)
11
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 5 (~11%)
11
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 6 (~14%)
11
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 7 (~17%)
11
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 8 (~14%)
28
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 9 (~11%)
13
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 10 (~8%)
2
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 11 (~6%)
2
Dobbelsteenworp: ratio van 12 (~3%)
0
also 2 players always 10, 14 cards, me 6---no 7, first i becomme 9 card, then come 7 every time.
about 1 win game /40 loose
Dice roll: percentage of 2 (~4%)
3
Dice roll: percentage of 3 (~13%)
10
Dice roll: percentage of 4 (~7%)
5
Dice roll: percentage of 5 (~12%)
9
Dice roll: percentage of 6 (~13%)
10
Dice roll: percentage of 7 (~20%)
15
Dice roll: percentage of 8 (~11%)
5
Dice roll: percentage of 9 (~11%)
8
Dice roll: percentage of 10 (0%)
0
Dice roll: percentage of 11 (~9%)
7
Dice roll: percentage of 12 (~4%)
3
Dice roll: percentage of 2 (~3%)
Dice roll: percentage of 3 (~6%)
Dice roll: percentage of 4 (~8%)
Dice roll: percentage of 5 (~11%)
Dice roll: percentage of 6 (~14%)
Dice roll: percentage of 7 (~17%)
Dice roll: percentage of 8 (~14%)
Dice roll: percentage of 9 (~11%)
Dice roll: percentage of 10 (~8%)
Dice roll: percentage of 11 (~6%)
Dice roll: percentage of 12 (~3%)
As proof, I can record at least 1000 games and show you that it's true! It's just impossible to deal with it from game to game! Fix it!
check out this game! well just look! it's just terrible! this is not normal! this is clearly a mistake! The dice roll is clearly broken! and has been broken for a long time! terrible! terrible! terrible! I just don’t want to play when this happens! The number 5 came up 0 times! 0, Karl! and look how many times the number 9 appears! Let me remind you that these numbers have the same probability of being drawn! what a horror! why don't they fix it, why???
Stats is meaningless over one or a few games. stats needs thousands+ of games so we can check. thanks
Rzut kością: wynik 3 (~6%) - 9
Rzut kością: wynik 4 (~8%) - 9
Rzut kością: wynik 5 (~11%) - 23
Rzut kością: wynik 6 (~14%) - 7
Rzut kością: wynik 7 (~17%) - 16
Rzut kością: wynik 8 (~14%) - 21
Rzut kością: wynik 9 (~11%) - 7
Rzut kością: wynik 10 (~8%) - 5
Rzut kością: wynik 11 (~6%) - 2
Rzut kością: wynik 12 (~3%) - 0
That 5... 3x the 6...
boardgamearena.com/13/catan?table=635075425
Based on probability theory, the chance of rolling a sum of 3 with two fair dice is 2 out of 36, or approximately 5.56%. Given 101 rolls, the expected number of occurrences of a sum of 3 would be roughly:
E = 101 \times 0.0556 \approx 5.61
The standard deviation (σ) for such a binomial distribution is:
\sigma = \sqrt{n \cdot p \cdot (1 - p)} \approx \sqrt{101 \cdot 0.0556 \cdot 0.9444} \approx 2.30
This gives a realistic interval for the expected number of occurrences, within ±2σ, as:
[5.61 - 4.60 , 5.61 + 4.60] = [1.01 , 10.21]
The observed value of 13 falls well outside this 95% confidence interval, raising the statistical suspicion of either a highly unlikely outcome or a potential irregularity.
To be precise, the probability of exactly 13 occurrences of sum 3 in 101 fair dice rolls is approximately:
\boxed{0.124\%} \text{ (or 1 in 806)}
While not impossible, this is statistically very rare, and such a deviation could indicate:
A flaw or bias in the random number generator (if digital),
A physical irregularity with the dice (if analogue),
Or simply a highly improbable natural variance — which should ideally not be this extreme.
Given the significance of such a deviation, I would kindly ask your team to verify the integrity of the dice logic or any RNG mechanisms used during this session. I’m not implying wrongdoing — I simply want to ensure that fairness and trust are maintained.
Thank you in advance for your time, attention, and any insights you can provide.
The whole idea of the game makes no sense because no strategy matters, only randomness.
Is this starting to approach gambling games which are probably illegal?
Table game
#650604190
Кубики: частота 2 (~3%)
8
Кубики: частота 3 (~6%)
5
Кубики: частота 4 (~8%)
12
Кубики: частота 5 (~11%)
9
Кубики: частота 6 (~14%)
6
Кубики: частота 7 (~17%)
15
Кубики: частота 8 (~14%)
14
Кубики: частота 9 (~11%)
15
Кубики: частота 10 (~8%)
3
Кубики: частота 11 (~6%)
6
Кубики: частота 12 (~3%)
8
Watch the replay of this game.... I noted the dice throws of this game:
7, 5, 5, 8, 4, 8, 12, 11, 8, 11, 4, 8, 8, 7, 10, 9,
8, 5, 5, 10, 10, 8, 5, 9, 7, 7, 3, 6, 9,
6 came only ONE time... I was the host. My opponents were on the fields: 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10 ...
I was on 3, 6, 10, 11
But if at another game I set my house to the field number 8 there would not be many 8's... I don't know but I think the host is sabotaged in this game...
É uma reclamação constante pelos outros jogadores e minha também.
Frustra a jogabilidade aos desfavorecidos que praticamente nem chegam a realizar qualquer ação no jogo.
In almost every game, due to peculiar coincidences, certain numbers appear very frequently for some players during the game; there was a game where the number 3 was the most frequently rolled number.
f5 does not help
I am writing to bring to your attention some statistical irregularities observed in the dice rolls on your platform, and to suggest improvements to ensure fairness and transparency. As an avid player who appreciates BGA’s offerings, I believe it’s important for the integrity of the games that the random number generation be truly random and perceived as such by the community.
Issue Summary: Recently, I analyzed the outcomes of dice rolls in one of Catan. In a sample of 100 two-dice rolls, the distribution of sums was markedly different from the expected probabilities for fair six-sided dice. Notably, the sum of 9 appeared 22 times (22% of all rolls), which is about double its fair expected rate (~11%). Conversely, the traditionally most common outcome 7 appeared only 9 times (9%), roughly half of its expected frequency (~17%). Other numbers like 11 were also scarce (only 3 occurrences, vs ~6 expected). In a fair scenario, such large deviations are highly unlikely to occur purely by chance.
Statistical Test: To quantify this, I performed a chi-square goodness-of-fit test on the observed distribution. The test returned a chi-square statistic of ~17.3 with 10 degrees of freedom, corresponding to a p-value of about 0.068 (6.8%). In plain terms, if the dice were fair, there is only around a 7% probability of seeing a discrepancy this extreme in 100 rolls. This is an unusually low probability. While it does not definitively prove a bias (conventionally one might use a 5% threshold), it certainly suggests that the dice outcomes are not following the expected random pattern. The results are borderline significant and, combined with the specific nature of the deviations (extreme overrepresentation of one number and underrepresentation of another), they point toward a potential problem in the number generator.
Impact on Gameplay: Such skewed results can have a real impact on games. For example, in Settlers of Catan (a game on BGA that uses two-dice rolls), a player who built on 9s would unexpectedly have a huge advantage in the scenario above, whereas a player relying on 6s or 8s (normally good numbers) or 7s for the robber would be disadvantaged. Over many games, if the dice roller systematically favors certain outcomes, it could affect players’ long-term success and their trust in the platform’s fairness.
Clustering and Possible Cause: The pattern observed (e.g., 9s coming up far too often) might indicate an issue with the random number generation algorithm. One possibility is that the method used to generate or seed random numbers is introducing bias. For instance, if the RNG is seeded with the current time for each roll or not sufficiently randomized, it can lead to “clustering” of certain results. While I don’t have direct insight into your code, the data suggests it’s worth investigating the RNG implementation for any flaws or biases. Even high-quality PRNGs can produce anomalies if misused (such as seeding too frequently or with low entropy).
Community Concern: Browsing the Board Game Arena community forums, one finds numerous reports from players questioning the randomness of dice rolls. The experiences I’ve quantified seem to align with what others have been sensing anecdotally. This is creating a perception problem – some players believe the dice may be “rigged” or not truly random. I’m sure this is not the intention, and that BGA strives for fairness, which is why I trust you will treat this seriously.
Recommendations: I respectfully urge the development team to take the following actions:
• Audit and Fix the RNG: Please conduct an internal review of the dice-roll generation algorithm. If any bug or bias is found (for example, a seeding issue or an out-of-date random library), updating it could resolve these anomalies. Using a well-regarded random number generator (with proper seeding) would ensure each outcome is independent and uniformly distributed as expected.
• Increase Transparency: Consider sharing details about how random outcomes are generated on BGA. Knowing that a robust method (like a tested pseudorandom algorithm or hardware RNG) is in use, and understanding how it’s seeded, would help the community trust the results. Even publishing aggregate dice roll statistics periodically could demonstrate that, over the long run, the rolls are fair. Transparency can go a long way to alleviate players’ concerns.
• Ensure Fair Play: If the investigation confirms an issue, please address it promptly (and let the community know when it’s fixed). Fair randomization is a cornerstone of board gaming – every number should have an equal chance in the long run. Also, if no issue is found (i.e., if this was a rare fluke), providing a detailed explanation or data to back the fairness of the system would be very helpful. It’s important for players to see that fairness is taken seriously and rigorously verified.
In closing, I want to emphasize that I deeply enjoy Board Game Arena and appreciate the work your team does to bring board games to a wide audience. My goal in writing this is to help maintain the high quality and integrity of the gaming experience on your platform. I believe that responding to these dice randomness concerns will ultimately strengthen player confidence and the reputation of BGA.
Thank you for your time and attention to this matter. I am happy to provide the data or calculations I used in my analysis, if that would be useful. Please let me know if there are any questions.
Remaining development cards
23
Dice roll: percentage of 2 (~3%)
0
Dice roll: percentage of 3 (~6%)
9
Dice roll: percentage of 4 (~8%)
14
Dice roll: percentage of 5 (~11%)
26
Dice roll: percentage of 6 (~14%)
16
Dice roll: percentage of 7 (~17%)
7
Dice roll: percentage of 8 (~14%)
12
Dice roll: percentage of 9 (~11%)
12
Dice roll: percentage of 10 (~8%)
0
Dice roll: percentage of 11 (~6%)
2
Dice roll: percentage of 12 (~3%)
2
Statistically speaking, the results are so improbable they’re almost impressive. It’s as if the system isn’t random at all, but rather… let’s say, “creatively guided” to make sure certain players suffer.
Since I pay the same as everyone else, I’d really appreciate it if the “randomizer” could stop holding a personal grudge against me. Thanks in advance.
3 (~6%) 17
4 (~8%) 5
5 (~11%) 12
6 (~14%) 10
7 (~17%) 18
8 (~14%) 12
9 (~11%) 7
10 (~8%) 7
11 (~6%) 3
12 (~3%) 2
There is definitely a issue with the dice engine „3” came more often then „6” of „8” Please do something with it
Shouldn't we take all games, put together all the numbers of all the 6M+ games and see that distribution instead of just a few cases?
"To apply a Chi-Square test, data must be in frequency counts of categorical variables, observations must be independent and from a simple random sample, and all expected frequencies must be at least 1, with at least 80% of expected frequencies being 5 or greater to ensure reliable results"
If you take 65 throws, the 2,3,11 and 12 are all expected less than 5 times.
How many turns were there in your analysis? And... did you consider the provided percentages or did you scale them to the real number of throws?
I agree that all tihs matter should be investigated.
On one side, there seems to be a LOT of anecdotal stuff... only people disgruntled with their games are writing here, it is not a good sample. On the other hand, I also find it strange that BGA simply answers "don't worry, we are doing things the correct way and you are just whining". It is not satisfactory.
I tend to think the numbers are OK, but I'd like a better and sounder approach.
My approach would be:
1) given a distribution of throws after a game, calculate how much was the probability of getting it
2) calculate how many possible distribution where more unlikely than that one
3) calculate how many possible distribution there are in all for a game with T turns (this is easy)
4) See if the given distribution really is one of the more unlikely or not.
5) Do this for all the 6M games (some steps don't need to be repeated, of course) and see if we really have something fishy going on.
Once again, some of the posted numbers do seem "strange" but there have been 6M games... you are bound to find strange distributions of dice sometimes! If I see a game with 65 turns and all 65 turns there have been only 2 and 12, that's surely wrong. So far, I haven't seen something that seems surely wrong
imgur.com/a/3xX35SZ
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